Real-Time Aurora Predictor & Forecast Map for Tonight

The Kp index and solar wind refresh automatically about once a minute, and the aurora oval map refreshes about every five minutes -- the same cadence NOAA itself publishes at. A "data freshness" note shows exactly how old the numbers on screen are.

No. Kp is a good proxy for how far the auroral oval has expanded, but it says nothing about whether it is dark, whether the moon is bright, or whether clouds are in the way at your specific location. Use /tonight/ for a verdict that accounts for all of those at once.

Only to compute a personal verdict entirely inside your browser. Your coordinates are stored in this browser only (localStorage) and are never sent to any server -- see the privacy page for the full explanation.

The Kp index is a single global number. The map shows NOAA's OVATION model, which estimates where the aurora oval actually is right now, including the fact that it is rarely a perfectly even ring around the pole. When the two disagree, the map is the more physically direct signal.

A forecast gives you the global Kp outlook. This predictor also turns that into a personal aurora prediction: it combines the Kp forecast with your geomagnetic latitude, whether it is dark where you are, and the moon phase, so you get a yes/no-style verdict rather than just a number.

Reliable aurora prediction runs about 1 to 3 days out, based on NOAA's Kp forecast, with the highest confidence in the 30 to 90 minute range once a solar wind stream actually reaches Earth. The 3-day strip on this page shows the near-term outlook; the live map and Kp gauge show what is happening right now.