Disclaimer

Last updated: July 31, 2026

Please read this page before making any travel, financial, or safety decision on the basis of anything shown on this site.

Aurora forecasting is probabilistic, not a promise

The Kp index, solar wind measurements, and auroral oval models shown here describe the likelihood and probable extent of auroral activity — they are not a guarantee that the aurora will be visible at any particular time or place. Geomagnetic storms can arrive earlier or later than forecast, over- or under-perform their predicted strength, or fail to produce visible aurora at a given latitude even when the numbers look favourable, for reasons (localized substorm timing, oval asymmetry, viewing-angle geometry) that are not fully predictable even by professional space-weather forecasters.

Not affiliated with NOAA or the US Government

This site is an independent, privately operated project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated on behalf of NOAA, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, or any part of the US Government. NOAA's underlying data is a public product of the US Government and is used here under that public-domain status; NOAA has not reviewed or approved this site's presentation of it.

Cloud cover is not accounted for

The forecast and verdict on this site are based entirely on geomagnetic and solar-wind conditions. They do not incorporate cloud cover, weather, or local sky conditions at your location. A strong geomagnetic storm behind a solid cloud deck will still produce no visible aurora from the ground. Check a weather or cloud forecast for your specific location separately.

Solar wind data can be delayed or missing

Real-time solar wind measurements (speed, density, and the interplanetary magnetic field's Bz component) come from spacecraft positioned upstream of Earth. These spacecraft periodically enter maintenance or safe modes, experience instrument dropouts, or have gaps in downlink coverage. When that happens, the data shown here may be stale, incomplete, or temporarily unavailable, and any forecast derived from it is correspondingly less reliable during that window.

Do not rely on this site alone

Do not make travel bookings, cancel or rearrange plans, spend money on aurora-chasing trips or equipment, or make safety-relevant decisions (driving in remote or cold conditions to reach a viewing spot, for example) based solely on this site. Cross-check with NOAA's own SWPC products, local weather forecasts, and your own judgement about conditions on the ground.

Contact

Questions about this disclaimer can be sent through theContact page.